The Zuckerberg phenomenon took the USA by storm last week. Commentators, analysts and scribes went bonkers over the announcement of the Facebook IPO. $billions were thrown around like pesos. There is just soooo much money to be made. That is, if a person could get in on the action. Which, of course, is not possible for an average Joe or Joe-Woww.
But hold on! Has anybody given a thought to the fact that the Facebook business model has peaked. Or in the alternative, that it will hit its apex soon. Be clear, nothing lasts forever. Every business has its life cycle. Oh, if you have your nose in the air, just go and talk to some General Motors or Kodak folks. There was time when their noses were so high in the clouds that the were catching birds by nostril. Ever hear of My Space?
So sure as Rick Santorum will wear another stupid vest, Facebook will ultimately be interred in the graveyard of old great ideas. And so it should be... With this understanding, then, it might be prudent to be circumspect in jumping in on the FB IPO. Oh, undoubtedly if a person can get in early enough, there will be a cash harvest. But, over time, the IPO will lead to a Ponzi like scheme wherein the later investors will be left without a chair as the business declines.
Facebook was promulgated as a trendy way for students to hook-up (virtually.) In fact, way back when, only .edu email accounts were eligible to play Face-bookery. The business exploded as the potential user market was stretched to include anyone with an email address and a pulse. The kids, the cognoscenti, now could be friends with their grandparents!
Two things must be placed into future investment planning as it pertains to $FB (the presumed ticker symbol.)
- The new wave of young customers will find nascent technology to sate them rather than old Facebook. They will shun FB like the plague. This will result in an erosion of the user base and worse yet, once FB becomes uncool, even the old people will get off.
- The new youth will soon realize that they don't want to use the same social media as their older relatives. As the buxom-enhanced JWoww tweeted.... http://m.tmi.me/lEO4j
So, in regards Facebook and its happy IPO... If ya' can't get in real early, fuhgetaboutit!!! As an aside, Mr. Zuckerberg can do NO wrong, no matter. He isn't a Yang (as in yin-.)