Thursday, July 15, 2010

Qnexa, After the Halt

Today is the day the FDA's Endocrinologic and Metabolism Panel reviews Vivus Pharmaceutical's diet drug, Qnexa. Going onto the meeting the indicators are favorable, but you can never be sure until the fat lady sings. The Panel will likely meet for most of the day. Although the FDA is not compelled to follow the Panel's advice, it almost always does.

Typically, trading is halted as the Panel gets close to its proclamation. VVUS value at the time of the stoppage is likely to be in the range of $12. When the market reopens VVUS trading, after the Panel has its say, the stock value may be in the ranges of $18 or $5 per share. Las Vegas has nothing on this kind of excitement. There are several strategies to consider going into the halt.

Another thing to consider is whether to parlay some money into the two other sister obesity drugs, Contrave and lorcaserin. Both ARNA and OREX have diet drugs in their pipelines, which will be coming up for review in the near future. If VVUS hits a homerun, both ARNA and OREX should enjoy a pop in value as well. If VVUS fails to win the day, the effects on the ARNA and OREX will be interesting. Okay, fasten your seat belts, here we go.

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